Official White House Photo by Molly Riley
Who knew? Did anyone warn Donald Trump of the consequences of attacking Iran? That it would lead to turmoil and conflict throughout the Middle East. That it would light a fire that would burn across the region and beyond. That it would create an oil war which would badly harm the world economy and cause domestic problems for those governments supporting the war.
The pundits discussing the war now thresh around in confusion. They thought this was a war for regime change. Or perhaps about Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Now, just over two weeks in, there is a rather different picture. And the picture is of Trump losing. There is no regime change – indeed, the Iranian government replaced the assassinated Supreme Leader with his son. Nor it seems to me any possibility of such change in the near future – not least because people don’t ‘rise up’ against governments when under a hail of bombs at the behest of a hostile government thousands of miles away.
The truth is this war is turning into a disaster for the monster in the White House. US casualties are small compared to those of Iran or of the victims of Israeli bombing in Lebanon, but they are real – and Trump can’t afford casualties, or a long war. Neither can he afford to see his Gulf state allies coming under attack from Iran which has waged effective asymmetrical warfare against its giant military enemy. Desalination plants, airports, hotels, have all been hit. US embassies in Kuwait, Riyadh and Baghdad have seen missile strikes, and US citizens were told to leave Iraq (the country they invaded to bring peace and democracy 23 years ago this week).
Trump was warned about all these consequences and more before he embarked on his latest gangster imperialist mission – not least by some of his own top military chiefs. Instead he followed Israel into a war to destroy the Iranian government, thinking that after he had successfully kidnapped Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro he could do the same with the long-term enemy of the US in the Middle East.
Instead of easy victory he is facing defeat. The price of oil and gas, and the impact of the war on the wider economy, is creating opposition and unease among people across the world. In Britain, polling shows a majority opposes the war and is against military bases being used for US bombers to kill Iranians. The lies and cover up of the atrocity which killed over 160 schoolgirls at the beginning of the war have disgusted working-class people, as has Trump’s promise of more possible bombing of Kharg Island ‘just for fun.’
Meanwhile Israel’s atrocities against both Iran and Lebanon, as well as its continued assault on the Palestinian people, are driving the demand for a ‘greater Israel’ which will wipe out the Palestinian occupied territories and take chunks of surrounding countries as well.
Yet even those who have done most to appease Trump are now getting very frightened at the consequences. Despite the very considerable military resources of Saudi Arabia and the UAE (witness their brutal wars in Yemen and Sudan respectively) the oil-rich rulers of the Gulf do not want to be drawn into a full war with Iran. Neither do they want their profits from oil, gas, logistics, airlines and tourism to be damaged by an air war or by the blockade of the Persian Gulf at the narrow Strait of Hormuz. But both those things are happening big time. The Strait is effectively closed, and the US fears that it is mined by Iran. There is little going in or out and oil prices are shooting up. Cue panic on the markets and fear of a much greater economic crisis than anything we have seen for at least two decades.
For governments allied to Trump there are few good options in supporting him. He is now demanding that countries from Japan to Britain send warships to the Arabian Sea to help keep the oil moving. But they must all be reluctant, especially Britain, to do so, given his claim last week that he didn’t need a British aircraft carrier, and that any British involvement here will likely provoke retaliation from Iran on its troops and bases in the region.
Already Starmer’s government is in trouble because he has allowed the use of British bases and has taken part in other ‘defensive’ actions. Such involvement would be even more unpopular and potentially costly in terms of human life. But most worrying is the looming threat of an economy out of control, widening and deepening the political problems facing an unpopular government when the May elections already look like them losing support to right and left.
Most important however is the threat of this war drawing in ever-wider military forces, with all the consequences that has not just for the people of Iran, Lebanon and Palestine, but for those across the world. It has never been more important to organise against war and the bloody onslaughts of a failing imperialism.
As one audience member in the Coventry Stop the War meeting last week asked, do you think Trump has done his homework? The answer is a definitive no.
Join the National Day of Action against war on Iran; there will be a big demo in London and protests around the country.
Source: Counterfire