The world is hurtling towards a catastrophic 2.6°C of warming, with emissions from fossil fuels hitting record highs. This environmental emergency coincides with a parallel surge in global military expenditure.
However, demilitarisation is nowhere on our leaders’ agendas. Even at the ongoing COP30 in Belém, Brazil, calls for decreased military spending are coming only from civil society groups like WILPF and CEOBS.
When the ones shaping the agenda for security are the arms dealers, it is hard to see demilitarisation on the table narrowing the space for alternate visions of peace and security.
A RAND report has highlighted the critical tension that exists: rising defence spending (e.g., the new NATO target of 5% of GDP) will create severe pressures on public finances, forcing cuts to social services and potentially fuelling public discontent.
The US think tank with ties to the military, also advises allied governments to “clearly articulate and advocate for the holistic value of deterrence and defence.” It recommends public engagement by government and armed forces through regular, impactful communication campaigns.
Why is this public relations push needed? Because the climate crisis is crippling military operations. And soldiers on the front lines already know this.
In an exchange with a Bloomberg journalist, retired Lieutenant General Richard Nugee described the extreme heat his troops faced in Iraq, which he called “the cooker.” He revealed, “I lost no soldiers on that tour… But I lost five back to the UK because of the heat… So, the heat had a very material impact.”
Nugee goes on to advocate for solutions like Hybrid-Electric Vehicles for silent, more efficient transport. However, this focus on technical solutions ignores the deeper context.
The conversation fails to connect climate change to a history of colonialism. It never questions the fundamental reason for the military’s presence in Iraq, for example.
This flawed conversation accompanies a relentless rise in military spending. In 2024, global military spending reached a staggering $2.7 trillion, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). This represents a 9.4% increase in real terms over 2023, the highest year-on-year rise since the end of the Cold War.
As NATO and Europe embark on an ‘unprecedented surge’ in military investments leaders are ignoring a threat that is already undermining both military effectiveness and societal stability: climate change.
Militaries are a significant, yet often obscured, source of global emissions. They are estimated to account for 5.5% of global emissions, but this data is incomplete and based on voluntary reporting. This reporting gap exists by design.
During the Kyoto Protocol negotiations, the chief U.S. negotiator, under heavy lobbying from the Department of Defence, successfully worked to exclude mandatory reporting of military emissions. As a result, the protocol excludes emissions from war and international bunker fuels.
Thanks to this loophole, championed by the Clinton administration, for years there was no requirement to report the majority of U.S. military emissions. And since 2015 reporting has only been voluntary, with data remaining patchy at best.
The US, the world’s largest military spender at over $916 billion in 2023, exemplifies this lack of transparency. Despite being a member of the UNFCCC, the US has not submitted any emissions inventory report for the 2025 submission of 2023 data.
Given the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and renaming of the Department of Defence to the Department of War, it is unlikely a report will be forthcoming. Not just that the Trump administration has added ‘climate change’, ‘green’ and ‘decarbonization’ to its growing ‘list of words to avoid’.
The evidence suggests that a shift in priorities would yield multiple benefits. Research indicates that defence spending tends to depress long-run economic growth in most countries. Furthermore, a study published in PLOS Climate concludes that reducing U.S. military spending could lead to substantial decreases in energy consumption.
The path forward is clear. As the world faces converging crises of climate and conflict, the relentless growth of military budgets is not a sustainable solution. True security in the 21st century depends on demilitarisation, transparent accounting of all emissions, and a massive redirection of resources.
This is fiscally possible too. Research from Oil Change International demonstrates that Global North countries alone could unlock $280 billion per year simply by redistributing a modest 20% of their public military spending.
When combined with other fair measures like taxing the super-rich and making polluters pay, Global North nations could mobilise over $6.6 trillion annually to meet their climate finance obligations and fund other critical public goods.
Clearly, the money we need for a safe and secure future is not missing.
Source: The New Arab