Blowing hot and cold

Looks like John Reid got out just in time. As he moves to the Home Office to preside over implementation of the terror laws, deportation of asylum seekers and the introduction of ID cards, Basra _ centre of British operations in occupied Iraq_ goes up in flames.

The shooting down of a British helicopter, with five personnel dead, and the shooting of at least five Iraqis, including children, marks a new stage in the war there. British troops are largely confined to their bases for fear of much higher casualties. They rely very heavily on helicopters. If the Iraqis can now shoot them down using missiles, the British are in big trouble.

And if the troops are shooting children as part of their response, then they will only fuel opposition to their presence _ already very great in Basra.

I reflected on this as I sat in the BBC's deserted Millbank studio on Saturday night for News 24. The news from Iraq was grim and I was asked a series of questions, culminating in the one which is de rigeur for the BBC, along the lines of, we know you opposed them going in but now don't they have to stay to finish the job?

It was obvious from the pictures on the screen that these are not peacekeepers but soldiers operating in a war situation, surrounded by a hostile population, incapable of winning hearts and minds by improving the lives of Iraqis. This is a job they shouldn't have started and simply can't finish.

Indeed, they may be operating in even more dangerous conditions if we attack Iran. Jack Straw's demotion from Foreign Secretary was at least in part about his public dismissal of such an attack. The Washington hawks (apart from his friend Condi of course) wanted his removal. An air strike on Iran would lead the country to retaliate _ and that retaliation would be at least in part in the south of Iraq.

One thing we should remember about the warmongers: they never learn from their mistakes _ in fact the mistakes seem to make them more arrogant and convinced of the need to reshape the world in their image. Take Tony Blair's reshuffle: now everyone connected with the war has gone _ except one, and the one that everyone blames for it in the first place. Or take Dick Cheney, ruthless architect of the new world order.

He made a speech in eastern Europe last week threatening Russia over it using oil and gas supplies for political bargaining _ something the Americans have never done! The Russians are likening it the Winston Churchill's Fulton speech in 1946 which heralded the Cold War. That's a pretty big deal. They are being pushed towards China.

From Bolivia and Venezuela to Russia and Iran we are now seeing an epic struggle for control of the world's resources. That's why the threat to Iran is so real. If we don't succeed, then Basra's flames will be only a small part of a much bigger conflagration.